Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
